Friday, January 15, 2010

Coakley Internal: Brown +3

I've been told reliably that Martha Coakley's internal poll for Thursday night showed her trailing Scott Brown by three points -- 47 to 44 percent.

As I wrote yesterday, her internal poll on Wednesday night had her barely ahead, 46 to 44 percent. The appearance of continued Brown momentum meshes with the Suffolk University/WHDH poll released earlier today, which put Brown ahead 50-46 percent.

The last time a public poll showed a Republican leading a Massachusetts Senate race this close to the election was, well....never. There were no public polls released in the week leading up to the 1972 election, the last one won by a Republican (Ed Brooke, who was re-elected in a landslide over John Droney). And since then, Democrats have enjoyed the stretch-run advantage in every Senate race in the state. The closest the GOP came was in 1996, when Bill Weld was within a few points of John Kerry just before Election Day; Weld lost that race by seven points.

UPDATE: MSNBC is now reporting that President Obama will travel to Massachusetts to campaign for Coakley.

FURTHER UPDATE: Robert Gibbs announes that Obama will be in Boston for Coakley on Sunday.

42 comments:

John Sanzone said...

Incredible. It's still too early to say how much Obama's appearance may still have an effect. The headlines will plug it and it will be all they hear in Massachusetts this weekend. But is enough enough? I think any prediction between Coakley up by 10 to Brown up by 3-4 is understandable.

One thing this race seems to show is that a lot can happen for a Republican when the GOP establishment is kept away with a sharpened spear. After Tuesday, the compare & contrast between MA-Sen and NY-23 will be most beneficial for Republicans going into November, yes?

Janice said...

I have to point out, on your comment concerning the last time a poll showed a Massachusetts Republican leading a race this close. Never might be technically correct. But consider 1994 Romney vs. Kennedy. You can nitpick and point out that the last polls showing Romney leading were a month out, but this was Ted Kennedy... in Massachusetts ... a month away from the election.

It isn't crazy to think that at Republican would be up in the polls for Ted Kennedy's seat. It happened against Ted HIMSELF - until he took out a second mortgage on his home and poured money into his campaign like no one's business.

Steve Kornacki said...

Janice --

I think the difference between the tightness of the Kennedy/Romney race and this one is more than nitpicking. TK led by 15+ in the closing weeks of that race. It wasn't a contest after the first debate. Romney peaked in the ten days after the mid-September primary (when be briefly led by 2 points). Like I wrote, Weld in '96 was much closer down the stretch than Romney was. (And Weld also led Kerry by 8 points earlier in the race -- more than Romney ever led TK by.)

For an R to lead four days before the election -- unheard of in modern times.

Tammy said...

Hillary could deliver some votes, and I'm surprised she isn't down there, since Madge stuck by her during the primaries. I guess Bill is coming, though.

Obama can maybe muster up minority turnout, but I am not sure he moves any other votes to Coakley. People are not crazy about the idea of paying for ObamaCare when they don't need it; they don't call this Taxachusetts for nothing.

patch said...

Intrade:

Coakley - 57.5 % probability

Brown - 43.9 probability

Anonymous said...

Obama didn't help in New Jersey at all..in fact he may have HURT the Democrat. I hope that isn't repeated in Massachusetts!!!

Anonymous said...

Hillary is flying to Haiti tomorrow
as SoS she said she would not do campaigning

Anonymous said...

Kornacki, are you another stupid Polak? What's with Polish people supporting Democrats?

ted said...

He didn't hurt in NJ. I'm from NJ and attended the rallies w/ Obama. The applause for him was deafening; it's just that nobody liked Corzine, so didn't vote. Many did, of course, but not enough.

JH said...

He hurt in NJ. I'm from NJ and everyone I talked to thought Obama was wasting his time which was true. We wanted to send a message to the Democrats they have gone too far. I'm not sure we did but hopefully the people of Massachusetts will.

Anonymous said...

Is this the same poll that had Sen. McCain leading in Ohio the day before election day 2008?

Tiger said...

I'm a conservative. I think Scott Brown destroyed Coakley during the debate. Then you have the thuggery the next day by a supposed Coakley advisor coupled with additional missteps this week. WHY would anyone vote for this dim bulb? Obama's ego must be at megalomaniac levels if he thinks coming here to campaign for Coakley will help. A big part of this is a rejection of Obama and his failed policies he's trying to shove down our throat.

Anonymous said...

I believe your earlier thesis (that the end of the Bush era licensed Mass. voters to listen to Republicans); I should also say I'm liking your blog (didn't see it till this week, and I live in MA).

Of course it's going to scare other DC Dems, and probably kill health care reform, if Coakley loses, and it's partly about how scared people are of health care reform (because it's confusing and scary), but it's Coakley, not Obama, whose conduct has made this election a toss-up at best: it's hard to overstate her incompetence as a candidate, from bad strategy (off the air a week after New Year's) to muddled positions to a lack of meet and greets to just unforced errors (like today's blooper about Curt Schilling).

Obama is coming because (a) it might help (b) she's behind now-- it's not as if he'd ruin her momentum and (c) a loss will get blamed on him whether or not he comes. I don't think it will hurt: even if all it does, as another comment above suggests, is turn out black voters at a higher rate, without affecting the white vote at all, that would be great. I hope she wins: I've made a few phone calls for her. But I'm mad at her too.

Anonymous said...

I love that Dems think sending a message means voting for republicans. Good Luck with that. Will see if the message is sent when the GOP has control over the house/senate/white house. Bush got 8yrs to destroy the nation, Obama basically had 1yr to clean it up. I guess he wasn't the magic negro some of u expected.

Anonymous said...

Obama's presidency is over after tuesday. So much hope squashed by 1 selfish state. Screw u Massachusetts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous....
I am from MA..
All I saw this past 1 yr is the republicans sit back and watch dems self distruct...
it was far to easy, even with all the media lock step with them...

Anonymous said...

I think it is particularly hilarious that many Dems on this and other websites have espoused that Coakley is an idiot and is completely unqualified for the position but that they will vote for her regardless. This is the problem with the American political system, people do not vote in qualified leaders, they vote in whomever their favorite party puts in front of them. Do they never think beyond the now? Obamacare is destined to go bankrupt before it ever gets started. I for one hope Brown soundly spanks Coakley just to vote down this abortion of a bill.

Just this week it has come out that Obama was bought lock, stock, and barrel by Unions. His current proposal is to tax everyone who is not in State/Fed Government and Unions at 40% on their current healthcare. Generally no one but your employer knows the true cost of your current plan, so it's very likely that you have a 'Cadillac' plan and don't even know it. Now if your employer opts to just pay the $750/person fine rather than taking up the extra 40% tax, where does the money for Obamacare come from then? They are banking on that 40% tax.

Wake up America! Look at what is happening. Think about the 'true' impact of this legislation. As a far wiser man said, "There is no such thing as a FREE lunch." Everyone will end up paying for this in more ways than one.

Anonymous said...

At least Obama is trying to pay for his crap. Bush just passed things and didn't even pretend to pay for it. Then who expects lower taxes in a time of war? The American people are so full of it. Taxes are patriotic, rather u like it or not.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous @ 12:05 is pretty much just lying about how the excise tax functions, but lying works in American politics... so liberals should watch and learn. Nobody cares about the specifics of policy. Just yammer slogans and pass whatever you damn well please ala Bush.

Anonymous said...

knuckleheads, the economy was relatively fine during bush yrs. Everything was humming along until 2006 dems taking over congress, then barney etc getting bolder and saying housing was fine while taking money out of it for themselves, that was the beginning of the collapse under your dem congress. to go back even further your pal carter was an early instigator of our housing/banking mess. bush was not responsible for any of that, but he did keep your butt safe after clinton lined you up for the attacks.

exodus2011 said...

some cute quotes I have seen today ...

"you're doin' a heckuva job Brownie"

hopefully there will be another

"Scott heard around the world" (or at least around the nation, *__*)

Brown4Pres said...

I love how the Liberal Media keeps saying "Browns win will be a filibuster vote of the republicans and they will stop all bills from passing" Which is bull. And by bull I mean it doens't mean it will stop everything...

It means, it will force the liberals to compromise and actually write a bi-partisan bill. That's when things actually get done! When they have to work together for the country and not just for their own idiology, things get done.

To me, it's like riding in a canoe. If you only paddle on one side of the boat you won't get very far. You need to paddle on both sides to move forward.

Anonymous said...

Brown4Pres - well stated! Anonymous @ 12:33a - great thinkin! Anonymous @12:05am - your last line pretty much says it all, but your whole comment is pretty darn good!

Anonymous said...

i would hope romney would stay away. i worked for that campaign in 92 and watched him sell out every conserative position and lose to a intoxicated teddy in a south attleboro private debate. his late father whom i was standing hung his head. romney comes i will jusy stay home no more rhino's

Anonymous said...

Are you shure Coakley wasn't in the back seat when took a header off the bridge? The best that can happen is to show the people of Mass. that there is another side to the political coin. Brown has it all together. He is well prepared and will listen to the people (unlike most Dems these days). We don't need more reps that just "Party-Up" just to soothe their sore loins.

Anonymous said...

To that person who said Bush spent this country broke while Obama cares I wonder what planet you're living on.

The CBO scored the tax cuts and they generated something like $200 billion to $300 billion more in revenue than CBO predicted. Yes President Bush wasn't veoting spending bills, but the federal budget took basically the entire 8 years of George Bush to increase by a trillion dollars. Obama added a trillion dollars with one bill that isn't working and had no solution to pay for it.

And keep in mind the best way to solve the spending problem something that person complained about is to stop spending! What Obama has given us is a trillion dollar nonstimulous bill, a health care plan which will lead rationing since we can't afford it, and increased spending for everying except defense, encouraging kids not to have sex, and vouchers for poor school kids in Washington D.C.

Yes Obama is talking about flooding us with revenues by repealing the Bush tax cuts. So if you make less than $50,000 your taxes go up by 50% as the the rate you pay jumps to 15% from 10%.

And lets remember if CBO was wrong with the revenues they'll bring in when enacted they are sure to have it wrong when the higher rates go into affect. Lots of states have increased their individual income tax rates expecting more money and discover that it went down.

Do you Democrats support all of that?

Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN

Anonymous said...

"Brown has it all together. He is well prepared and will listen to the people (unlike most Dems these days). We don't need more reps that just "Party-Up" just to soothe their sore loins."

LOL!!!

Scott Brown is as big a cookie cutter wingnut as there is! He cannot think or talk for himself, and you know he will fall in roboline with the Rushbots!!!

ROFLMAO!!! Good job, Mass!

ted said...

Obama did NOT hurt in NJ. I repeat, I attended both rallies and he revved up the crowd. His speeches certainly did help, making it closer than it would have been. Everybody hated Corzine. But most New Jerseyans love Obama. I heard many people say that they were voting for Corzine "for Obama." That's the truth. It will no doubt help Coakley, as well.

Anonymous said...

I love all of the comments about this great state, coming from those who have never lived here.

Our dear governor (and yes, I am a resident of MA) has promised no tax increases twice, each time to have new tax regulation passed within 30 days. Some tax increases having been voted in immediately - same day. We pay a tax on our alcohol tax - look it up.

They now go back 2 years for the valuation of your property to calculate your property taxes. Forget the fact that the values have gone down, two years ago looked like a lot better for tax revenue, so they ignored your 2009 assessment. (Go check your bill.)

Regardless of Coakley's stance on isses specific to the senate, she has put innocent people in prison, has charged a father for assaulting an illegal immigrant who was actively molesting his son in a restroom (the illegal fled the US, when he was released on his honor to show up for his court date). And, let a police officer go after he molested his 2 year old with a hot curling iron. You can look any one of these things up via google.

If she can't do her job in MA as an attorney general, how can she do her job in the senate?

I look at how a person does their job before I consider them for a promotion.

keetz4 said...

For those Dems who are trashing Coakley, she may have led a poor campaign but she is hardly an incompetent AG. As for the Rs who think Obama will be over come this Tuesday, get over yourselves. Obama will be around for another 7 years whether Coakley wins or not. He's the people's president!

Matt said...

When Bill Clinton came to Worcester (a city I've worked in most of the time since college), the rally was held at the small Alden Hall which has a capacity around 300.

Looking at the video from the newspaper the hall looked around half capacity, and some credible blog posts put the Brown crowd outside at 300.

Brown will be rallying Sunday at Mechanics Hall which has a capacity of 600.

When Bill Clinton can't draw enough to fill a hall of 300, but Brown with no headliners warrant a venue twice the size...something is seriously up.

Deedee said...

Anonymous 12:12 "At least Obama is paying for his crap" LOL LOL

That is the most idiotic comment posted on this site. Obama has our country Trillions more in debt! That IS A FACT and the costs are only going to go up. Your Great-Great grandchildren wills till be paying Obama and this Congress' bill.

Anonymous said...

Good Luck to Brown. As long as Teddy doesn't vote for Coakley on Tuesday. Brown looks like a winner.

Anonymous said...

I READ SOME OF THESE COMMENTS, AND I HAVE TO SAY THIS COUNTRY IS NOT ABOUT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN.. THE REALITY IS THAT SOME PEOPLE WANT TO BE TOLD WHAT TO DO BY THEIR GOVERNMENT, AND OTHERS WANT GOVERNMENT TO STAY OUT OF THEIR BUSINESS... THEIR IS NO PERSONALL RESPONSIBILITY ANYMORE, LAWERS DECIDE TAHT....AND WE THE PEOPLE (WHICH IS GOVERNMENT) CONTINUE TO ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN..MAYBE THE U.S. SHOULD BE DIVIDED INTO.. THOSE WHO WANT TOTAL GOVERNMENT CONTROL, AND THOSE WHO WANT TO MAKE THEIR OWN DECISION WITHOUT MUCH GOVERNMENT INPUT, AND TAKE RESPONSIBLITY INTO THEIR OWN HANDS..

Anonymous said...

The key will be independents. Obama has driven them away in droves, and they will likely be the deciding factor. While Dems outnumber Conservatives 3 to 1 in taxachusetts, independents lessen that ratio and bring a win for Brown. Obama will learn that you can't ignore the people for too long before they revolt. Only liberal democrats are approving of his job so far, and this vote will indicate that.

Anonymous said...

It would be nice to see Mass step up and lead the downturn of the Obama revolution. Although not the biggest State in the Union, Mass has lead critical moments in the history of The United States. Hopefully the GOP will pull out a win so we don't end up as a complete Socialist State.

Anonymous said...

I guess the Dems feel a little bit like the the Repubs did when Specter swtiched sides. Good riddance. But I definitely think the Repubs got the better of the two deals....Specter will lose and Indiana is now a possible Repub pickup. Way to go, Bayh. Tough nuggies, Kornacki!

reverse cell phone lookup said...

It's fun reading these comments after the dust has settled! Pellet Stoves

cafe24 said...

At last! I found a good post like this.. Thanks for this informative post! By the way, can you write a post about tagged seo factors? Thanks again!

glyco-flex said...

I'm really intrigued by your political views and on your stance, I might not completely agree with you, but I see where you're coming from.

cerebral palsy attorneys said...

Thanks for sharing, amazing article.

Home furniture said...

Hi
Steve Kornacki
i would like to say thank you about this cool post,and this idea very helpful to me,
Thank You