Monday, January 18, 2010

Coakley internals: +1, with a catch

There is a report that Martha Coakley's internals for Sunday night put her ahead by two points, 48 to 46 percent. For what it's worth, my little birdie tells me that her Sunday night poll put her ahead by one point and that the three-night average for Friday, Saturday and Sunday also put her ahead by one. Recall that Scott Brown had pulled ahead (by as many as three points) in Coakley's polls late last week. So this might indicate potential tightening.

That said, there's a catch: Coakley also apparently has numbers that showed Brown slightly ahead both on Sunday night and over the last three nights -- a different turnout model.

Her own poll shows her failing to crack 80 percent among Democrats (while Brown is over 90% with Republicans) and losing independents by more than 30 points. A very smart Massachusetts Democrat tells me that "I'm still guessing Brown wins, but it's really a toss-up at this point."

For a look at how the race will be won and lost tomorrow, check out my guide to the three victory models for Massachusetts Republicans.

10 comments:

Ali said...

Vote for progress not backward people. Scot is deceiving people, his aganda is to waterloo Obama.Vote NO for Scot and YES for Coakley. We need progress in this country.

J said...

All other polls show Scott ahead.

Marcia Coakley said...

Only in Martha Coakley's fantasy world (aka a Daily Kos poll) could she be ahead in votes.

All other polls show her support in meltdown:
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-1144.html

Anonymous said...

Well, we will just see about that. I say Scott Brown will win this. Unless of course some of the thugs of Seiu and ACORN show up and start adding votes from DEAD PEOPLE from their graves. Can you say SCUMBAGS, LIARS, CROOKS, THIEVES AND LOWLIFE CHEATERS. That is the only way Democrats can win anything. They are so liberal their Brains have fallen out.

Anonymous said...

Bellweather shows her in deep by double. She's in trouble and its gonna be rough Brown winnig or not because a Republican should not get this closs in the State of the late King Kennedy and his Brother the late Lord Drunky McSwimsalot.

Anonymous said...

Vote for Scott Brown tomorrow (Tues).

Anonymous said...

I see Coakley winning.

Anonymous said...

There is no progress in "progressive" politics, only a backwards step towards worshipping the State as if it were a God, and Mankind has been doing that since Mesopotamia and Egypt, the Emporers of Rome and the French Monarchy.

Vance said...

So which Croakley staffer gets fired tomorrow after her internals are all proven completely false.

Tom Dickson-Hunt said...

All of them; she doesn't need any after losing.